In your examples, the file size is a wee bit smaller than what I see on the initial analysis screen.
MrGrackle
NCIS.s01e01 NF USA
With your settings and your selection (same bitrate)
and SF 6250, I get also only H264 - no AV1
Then I switched NF Audio Codec from Atmos to AAC
(because s01e01 have only AAC) - but this change nothing.
Then I tried with 720p which I had previously received in AV1
with 6247+6257 and get also H264 - and surprise: also with 6257
After that I tried with a different vpn and a different NF account
and by the way I noticed, that I see always the same bitrate + size
no matter which video codec I select: max 4712 kbps - it's H264 !
But the correct max AV1 bitrate is 3497 kbps !
After I got a gray hair, I simply start + analyzed s01e02
and selected s01e02+01 - and it worked with FHD AV1 for both:

=> No logical explanation - just my experience report
My new favorite game: Find the difference
wrong

correct

To compare: Different maximum bitrates for H264 and AV1